致密油产量递减分析新组合方法研究——以玛湖致密油藏为例

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2021.06.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

玛湖致密油藏储层非均质性强,油井产能差异大、递减特征差异明显,产量递减分析及预测对油井生产制度管理以及油田开发方案的编制与优化具有重要指导意义,也是油藏动态分析的重要内容之一。然而现如今使用的Arps双曲递减、幂律指数递减、Valkó扩展指数递减以及Duong递减等传统经验递减模型具有不同适用性,采用这些方法对玛湖致密油藏压裂水平井生产数据进行拟合,精确度较低。为此,根据玛湖区块油井不同阶段拟合情况,探索了一种分阶段选择不同模型进行拟合的“组合新方法”,并在该区块进行了实例应用验证。研究结果表明：该“组合新方法”较传统经验递减单方法误差率低、吻合度高,且使用此方法对玛湖致密油井进行最终可采储量（EUR）预测的结果也较为准确,方法可行性强,对其他类似致密油藏单井产量递减规律研究及产能预测具有一定的借鉴作用。

关键词: 产量递减, 经验递减模型, 组合模型, 最终可采储量, 致密油藏, 玛湖

Abstract:

In the tight reservoir like mahu with strong heterogeneity, large differences in the productivity of oil wells and obvious differences in the decline characteristics, the production decline analysis and prediction have important guiding significance to the management of oil well production system and the preparation and optimization of oil field development plan, and are also an important part of reservoir performance analysis. However, the traditional empirical decline models used today, such as the Arps production decline model, power law exponential decline model, Valkó extended exponential decline model, and Duong decline model, have different applicability. When using these methods to fit the production data of the fractured horizontal wells in the Mahu tight reservoir, the accuracy of the fitted results is low. Therefore, a new method of combination that uses different models for fitting in stages based on the model fitting results of Mahu oil wells in different stages is explored, and the examples are applied to verify it in this block. The research results show that this new method has lower error rate and higher degree of agreement than the traditional ones. In addition, by using this method, the prediction results of Estimated Ultimate Recovery（EUR） for the tight oil wells in Mahu reservoir are more accurate, and the method is highly feasible, which can be used as a reference for the research on the production decline law and the productivity prediction of other similar tight oil reservoirs.

Key words: production decline, empirical decline model, combined model, estimated ultimate recovery（EUR）, tight reservoir, Mahu reservoir

中图分类号:

TE348

刘文锋,张旭阳,盛舒遥,汪康,段永刚,魏明强. 致密油产量递减分析新组合方法研究——以玛湖致密油藏为例[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2021, 11(6): 911-916.

LIU Wenfeng,ZHANG Xuyang,SHENG Shuyao,WANG Kang,DUAN Yonggang,WEI Mingqiang. Research on a new combination method of production decline analysis for tight oil: Cases study of Mahu tight reservoir[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2021, 11(6): 911-916.

图/表 5

表1

油井经验产量递减分析方法汇总"

经验递减模型	优点	缺点	理论模型	适用性条件
Arps双曲递减模型	计算简单,快捷方便	无法对生产早期的不稳定流阶段进行递减分析;关井操作会使产量预测出现较大偏差	$q = q 1 1 + n D 1 t - 1 / n$	边界控制流阶段;定压生产;生产数据连续稳定
幂律指数递减模型	可对整个生产过程的生产数据进行拟合	模型待定参数多;模型中部分参数物理意义模糊;对于生产时间较短的井预测结果不准确	$q = q 1 exp - D ∞ t - D 1 n t n$	线性流、边界控制流阶段;定压生产
改进的幂律指数递减模型	可对整个生产过程的生产数据进行拟合;参数物理意义明确;精度更高	在实际油藏的复杂流动状态下并不适用	$q = q 1 exp D 1 n t n, t ＜ t sfi q s 1 + 0.5 D s t 2, t ≥ t sfi$	线性流、边界控制流阶段
Valkó扩展指数递减模型	预测可采储量值结果较为准确	模型参数确定过程较为复杂;无法对边界流阶段进行递减分析;生产后期段的产量预测值偏低	$q = q 1 exp - t τ n$	线性流阶段;定压生产;生产数据连续稳定
Duong递减模型	计算步骤简单;可用非稳态流动阶段的数据来对拟稳态流阶段进行产量拟合	无法对边界流阶段进行递减分析;生产后期段的产量预测值偏高;生产数据波动对产量预测结果影响较大	$q = q 1 t - m exp a 1 - m t 1 - m - 1$	裂缝性的线性流阶段
扩展Duong递减模型	可对整个生产过程的生产数据进行拟合	方程参数较多,拟合过程复杂	$q = q 1 t - m exp a 1 - m t 1 - m - 1, t ＜ t sfi q s 1 + b D s t 1 b, t ≥ t sfi$	线性流、边界控制流阶段;定压生产

表1

图1

表2

图2

图3

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