Machine learning prediction of fracture length in tight reservoirs by integrating geostress characteristics

LU Xuejiao; LI Hongchang; LI Yuzheng; WANG Siyi; WANG Jing; YANG Huanying; PING Yi

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025253

Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development >

2025 2025253

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025253

Machine learning prediction of fracture length in tight reservoirs by integrating geostress characteristics

LU Xuejiao ,
LI Hongchang ,
LI Yuzheng ,
WANG Siyi ,
WANG Jing ,
YANG Huanying ,
PING Yi

Expand

1. Exploration and Development Research Institute of China Petroleum Changqing Oilfield Branch, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710018, China;
2. National Engineering Laboratory for Exploration and Development of Low Permeability Oil and Gas Fields, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710018, China

Received date: 2025-05-28

Online published: 2025-12-29

Fold

Abstract

In order to solve the key problems of low prediction accuracy of natural fractures and lack of theoretical support for artificial fracturing design in the development of tight oil reservoirs in Huaqing Oilfield, Ordos Basin, a multidisciplinary fusion of fracture network characterization and fracturing calculation method was adopted. Based on imaging logging data, core data, and rock mechanics experimental data of 452 wells, a multivariate coupling model of "logging response geostress field fracture parameters" was constructed, and a natural fracture identification standard considering quantitative indicators such as resistivity reduction>30% and acoustic time difference increase>10% was established. By using sequential Gaussian simulation and Oda algorithm, the three-dimensional fracture network reconstruction in the study area was achieved (with a NE60°~90° orientation accounting for 66.7%, a length of 5 m to 95 m, and a permeability of 0~18×10^-3 μm²), and the model validation agreement reached nearly 90%. In terms of characterizing the geostress field, the modified Eaton method was used to invert the horizontal principal stress difference of 4~8 MPa (σ H_=NE75 °). Based on the study of natural fractures and geostress fields, a fracturing fracture length prediction system was developed by integrating the PKN/P3D model and XGBoost algorithm. The key innovations include: combining the classic fracturing model PKN/P3D model, while considering the difficulty of obtaining some parameters in the PKN/P3D model on site, the fracturing fractures calculated using the mature commercial software Kinetix for some wells in this study area were used as machine learning samples to obtain fracturing calculations for all wells and adjacent well areas in the study area. On site applications have shown that the prediction results have an average error of only 7.2% compared to microseismic monitoring data. Using research results to guide the B195-100X well to increase production by 42% after repeated fracturing. This study has developed an integrated technical pathway for "fracture identification geostress characterization fracture length prediction fracturing optimization" in tight oil reservoirs suitable for areas without seismic data, providing replicable theoretical methods and technical paradigms for efficient development of tight oil reservoirs in the Ordos Basin and similar geological conditions.

Key words： tight oil reservoir; high inclination; natural fracture distribution; pressure fracture; machine learning; geostress

Cite this article

LU Xuejiao , LI Hongchang , LI Yuzheng , WANG Siyi , WANG Jing , YANG Huanying , PING Yi . Machine learning prediction of fracture length in tight reservoirs by integrating geostress characteristics[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2025 : 2025253 . DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025253

References

[1] CLARKSON C R, PEDERSEN P K, QANBARI F, et al.A comprehensive review of liquid-rich shale production mechanisms and enhanced-oil-recovery methods[J]. Fuel, 2022, 310: 122235.
[2] 邹才能, 董大忠, 张琴, 等. 中国海陆过渡相页岩气形成、潜力与挑战[J]. 地球科学, 2025.
ZOU Caineng, DONG Dazhong, ZHANG Qin, et al.Formation, Potential, and Challenges of Marine-Continental Transitional Shale Gas in China[J]. Earth Science, 2025.
[3] ZENG L, SU H, TANG X, et al.Multi-scale characterization of natural fractures in tight reservoirs: A review[J]. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 2021, 133: 105263.
[4] 郭旭洋, 金衍, 黄雷, 等. 页岩油气藏水平井井间干扰研究现状和讨论[J]. 石油钻采工艺, 2021, 43(3): 348-367.
GUO Xuyang, JIN Yan, HUANG Lei, et al.Research status and discussion of horizontal well interference in shale oil and gas reservoirs[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2021, 43(3): 348-367.
[5] CIEZOBKA J, REEVES S. Overview of hydraulic fracturing test sites (HFTS) in the Permian Basin and summary of selected results: HFTS-I in Midland and HFTS-II in Delaware[C]//Unconventional Resources Technology Conference.2020: URTEC-2020-1544-MS.
[6] GALE J F W, ELLIOTT S J, LAUBACH S E. Hydraulic fractures in core from stimulated reservoirs: Core fracture description of HFTS slant core, Midland Basin, West Texas[C]//Unconventional Resources Technology Conference.2018: URTEC-290264-MS.
[7] 蔡文军, 冯永存, 闫伟, 等. 玛131井区百口泉组砾岩储层可压性评价[J]. 新疆石油地质, 2022, 43(2): 194-199.
CAI Wenjun, FENG Yongcun, YAN Wei, et al.Fracability evaluation of conglomerate reservoirs in Baikouquan Formation of Well Block Ma131[J]. Xinjiang Petroleum Geology, 2022, 43(2): 194-199.
[8] 苏涛, 王寄任, 谢正森, 等. 水平井保形取心技术在马02井的应用[J]. 新疆石油天然气, 2022, 18(3): 60-64.
SU Tao, WANG Jiren, XIE Zhengsen, et al.Application of horizontal well conformal coring technology in Well Ma02[J]. Xinjiang Oil & Gas, 2022, 18(3): 60-64.
[9] 崔明明, 李进步, 王宗秀, 等. 辫状河三角洲前缘致密砂岩储层特征及优质储层控制因素: 以苏里格气田西南部石盒子组8段为例[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(3): 279-294.
CUI Mingming, LI Jinbu, WANG Zongxiu, et al.Characteristics of tight sand reservoir and controlling factors of high-quality reservoir at braided delta front: A case study from Member 8 of Shihezi Formation in southwestern Sulige gas field[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2019, 40(3): 279-294.
[10] 赵金洲, 任岚, 蒋廷学, 等. 中国页岩气压裂十年: 回顾与展望[J]. 天然气工业, 2021, 41(8): 121-142.
ZHAO Jinzhou, REN Lan, JIANG Tingxue, et al.Ten years of shale gas fracturing in China: Review and prospect[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2021, 41(8): 121-142.
[11] 蒋廷学, 贾长贵, 王海涛. 页岩气水平井体积压裂技术[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2017.
JIANG Tingxue, JIA Changgui, WANG Haitao.Stimulated reservoir volume fracturing technology for shale gas horizontal wells[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2017.
[12] ZHU J, FORREST J, XIONG H, et al. Cluster spacing and well spacing optimization using multi-well simulation for the Lower Spraberry shale in Midland Basin[C]//SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition.2017: SPE-187485-MS.
[13] 邹才能, 赵群, 王红岩, 等. 非常规油气勘探开发理论技术助力我国油气增储上产[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2021, 40(3): 72-79.
ZOU Caineng, ZHAO Qun, WANG Hongyan, et al.Unconventional oil & gas theory and technology supporting reserve and production growth in China[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2021, 40(3): 72-79.
[14] 付金华, 范立勇, 刘新社, 等. 苏里格气田成藏条件及勘探开发关键技术[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(2): 240-256.
FU Jinhua, FAN Liyong, LIU Xinshe, et al.Gas accumulation conditions and key exploration & development technologies in Sulige gas field[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2019, 40(2): 240-256.
[15] 李进步, 付斌, 赵忠军, 等. 苏里格气田致密砂岩气藏储层表征技术及其发展展望[J]. 天然气工业, 2015, 35(12): 35-41.
LI Jinbu, FU Bin, ZHAO Zhongjun, et al.Characterization technology for tight sandstone gas reservoirs in Sulige Gas Field[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2015, 35(12): 35-41.
[16] MASTERS J A.Elmworth: Case study of a deep basin gas field[M]. Tulsa: AAPG, 1984.
[17] 余浩杰, 王振嘉, 李进步, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地长庆气区复杂致密砂岩气藏开发关键技术进展及攻关方向[J]. 石油学报, 2023, 44(4): 698-712.
YU Haojie, WANG Zhenjia, LI Jinbu, et al.Key technological progress and breakthrough directions for developing complex tight sandstone gas reservoirs in Changqing Gas Field, Ordos Basin[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2023, 44(4): 698-712.
[18] 卢涛, 张吉, 李跃刚, 等. 苏里格气田致密砂岩气藏水平井开发技术及展望[J]. 天然气工业, 2013, 33(8): 38-43.
LU Tao, ZHANG Ji, LI Yuegang, et al.Horizontal well development technology for tight sandstone gas reservoirs in Sulige Gas Field[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2013, 33(8): 38-43.
[19] 付锁堂, 张矿生, 唐梅荣, 等. 致密油层多簇裂缝扩展缝内注入压力与缝间应力场耦合响应研究[J]. 中国海上油气, 2020, 32(6): 116-121.
FU Suotang, ZHANG Kuangsheng, TANG Meirong, et al.Coupled response of multi-cluster fracture propagation injection pressure and inter-fracture stress field in tight reservoirs[J]. China Offshore Oil and Gas, 2020, 32(6): 116-121.
[20] 李宪文, 李喆, 肖元相, 等. 苏里格致密气水平井完井压裂技术对比研究[J]. 石油钻采工艺, 2021, 43(1): 48-53.
LI Xianwen, LI Zhe, XIAO Yuanxiang, et al.Comparative study on completion and fracturing technologies for tight-gas horizontal wells in Sulige Gas Field[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2021, 43(1): 48-53.
[21] 杨华, 付金华, 刘新社, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界致密气成藏条件与勘探开发[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(3): 295-303.
YANG Hua, FU Jinhua, LIU Xinshe, et al.Accumulation conditions and exploration and development of tight gas in the Upper Paleozoic of Ordos Basin[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(3): 295-303.
[22] 朱亚军, 李进步, 陈龙, 等. 苏里格气田大井组立体开发关键技术[J]. 石油学报, 2018, 39(2): 208-215.
ZHU Yajun, LI Jinbu, CHEN Long, et al.Key technology of large-well-group stereoscopic development in Sulige Gas Field[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2018, 39(2): 208-215.
[23] 李建龙, 王维平, 王龙, 等. 古地貌恢复及其对三角洲前缘沉积砂体的控制作用: 以鄂尔多斯盆地庆阳气田二叠系山西组1~3亚段为例[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2021, 42(5): 1136-1145.
LI Jianlong, WANG Weiping, WANG Long, et al.Paleogeomorphologic restoration and its controlling effect on delta-front sand bodies: A case study of Sub-members 1-3 of Permian Shanxi Formation in Qingyang Gas Field, Ordos Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2021, 42(5): 1136-1145.
[24] 王万庆, 石仲元, 付仟骞. G0-7三维水平井井组工厂化钻井工艺[J]. 石油钻采工艺, 2015, 37(2): 27-31.
WANG Wanqing, SHI Zhongyuan, FU Qianqian.Factory drilling technology for G0-7 3D horizontal well group[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2015, 37(2): 27-31.
[25] 马新华. 鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界深盆气特点与成藏机理探讨[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2005, 26(2): 230-236.
MA Xinhua.Discussion on characteristics and reservoir-forming mechanism of deep basin gas in Upper Paleozoic of Ordos Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2005, 26(2): 230-236.
[26] 凌云, 李宪文, 慕立俊, 等. 苏里格气田致密砂岩气藏压裂技术新进展[J]. 天然气工业, 2014, 34(11): 66-72.
LING Yun, LI Xianwen, MU Lijun, et al.New progress in fracturing technologies for tight sandstone gas reservoirs in Sulige Gas Field[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2014, 34(11): 66-72.
[27] 慕立俊, 赵振峰, 李宪文, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地页岩油水平井细切割体积压裂技术[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2019, 40(3): 626-635.
MU Lijun, ZHAO Zhenfeng, LI Xianwen, et al.Fracturing technology of stimulated reservoir volume with subdivision cutting for shale oil horizontal wells in Ordos Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2019, 40(3): 626-635.
[28] 刘忠群. 鄂尔多斯盆地大牛地致密砂岩气田水平井开发气藏工程优化技术[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2016, 37(2): 261-266.
LIU Zhongqun.Engineering optimization technology for horizontal well development in Daniudi tight sandstone gas field, Ordos Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2016, 37(2): 261-266.
[29] 陈奎, 任广磊, 杨文娟, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地大牛地气田盒1段储层应力敏感性及对水平井开发的影响[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2016, 37(2): 267-271.
CHEN Kui, REN Guanglei, YANG Wenjuan, et al.Stress sensitivity of He 1 Member and its influence on horizontal well development in Daniudi Gas Field, Ordos Basin[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2016, 37(2): 267-271.
[30] 郭建春, 陶亮, 曾凡辉. 致密油储集层水平井重复压裂时机优化: 以松辽盆地白垩系青山口组为例[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2019, 46(1): 146-154.
GUO Jianchun, TAO Liang, ZENG Fanhui.Optimization of refracturing timing for horizontal wells in tight oil reservoirs: A case study of Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in Songliao Basin[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2019, 46(1): 146-154.

Options

Outlines

模态框（Modal）标题

Abstract

Cite this article

References