油气藏评价与开发 ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (4): 657-666.doi: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2024.04.016
• 综合研究 • 上一篇
毕彩霞(
)
收稿日期:2024-05-13
出版日期:2024-08-26
发布日期:2024-09-10
作者简介:毕彩霞（1971—），女，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事油气田设备完整性管理及评价技术、安全工程技术研究工作。地址：北京市昌平区百沙路197号中国石化科学技术研究中心，邮政编码：102206。E-mail：基金资助:
BI Caixia()
Received:2024-05-13
Online:2024-08-26
Published:2024-09-10
摘要：
储气库设备繁多，工艺流程复杂，风险因素众多，对其进行风险分析与评价的研究与应用尤为重要。近年来，储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效事故频发，准确有效地分析储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的原因对其安全运行至关重要。采用数据和知识融合双驱动的风险评价方法，首先，对储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效数据进行统计分析，并建立贝叶斯腐蚀预测模型，在此基础上分析导致储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的基本事件。其次，建立了腐蚀失效的知识模型，利用储气库地面工艺管道的腐蚀失效故障树详细分析了导致腐蚀失效的原因。通过各个基本事件的结构重要度系数，确定了各个基本事件在故障树结构上的重要性。最后，将储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的影响因素总结为四大类，生成判断矩阵并确定不同影响因素的相对权重值，为模糊综合评价中权重因子的确定提供依据，得出储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效的风险级别。通过储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀风险评价实例应用，研究可为储气库的安全管理与运行提供科学依据。
中图分类号:
毕彩霞. 基于数据和知识双驱动的储气库地面管道腐蚀风险评价[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2024, 14(4): 657-666.
BI Caixia. A corrosion risk assessment method for underground gas storage ground pipeline based on data and knowledge dual drivers[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2024, 14(4): 657-666.
图1
储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀风险模型建立流程"
图2
贝叶斯预测模型及置信区间注：du为最大腐蚀深度贝叶斯估计置信区间的上限，单位mm；dl为最大腐蚀深度贝叶斯估计置信区间的下限，单位mm；u，l为置信区间变量。"
表1
层次分析法标度标准"
| 标度 | 说明 |
|---|---|
| 1 | 前指标与后指标具有相同重要性 |
| 3 | 前指标比后指标稍微重要 |
| 5 | 前指标比后指标明显重要 |
| 7 | 前指标比后指标强烈重要 |
| 9 | 前指标比后指标极端重要 |
| 2,4,6,8 | 表示以上相邻判断的中间取值，即小于和大于2个奇数之间的模糊表达 |
| 倒数 | 2个要素i和j的重要性之比为aij，则要素j和i的重要性之比为aij的倒数 |
表2
地面工艺管道腐蚀检测数据"
| 时间/a | 最大腐蚀深度/ mm | 时间/a | 最大腐蚀深度/ mm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.25 | 8 | 3.26 | |
| 2 | 1.96 | 9 | 3.60 | |
| 3 | 2.24 | 10 | 3.68 | |
| 4 | 2.50 | 11 | 3.92 | |
| 5 | 2.70 | 12 | 4.05 | |
| 6 | 2.84 | 13 | 4.31 | |
| 7 | 2.95 | 14 | 4.36 |
图3
独立样本贝叶斯参数概率密度分布"
图4
基于贝叶斯的腐蚀深度预测结果"
图5
储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效故障树注：Mi为中间事件。"
表3
腐蚀故障树基本事件"
| 事件 符号 | 事件 | 事件 符号 | 事件 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T | 腐蚀失效 | X16 | 土壤pH值低 | |
| M1 | 外腐蚀 | X17 | 土壤含水率高 | |
| M2 | 内腐蚀 | X18 | 土壤含盐量高 | |
| M3 | 腐蚀开裂 | X19 | 土壤电阻率低 | |
| M4 | 土壤腐蚀 | X20 | 土壤硫酸盐还原菌含量高 | |
| M5 | 大气腐蚀 | X21 | 大气相对湿度 | |
| M6 | 电流腐蚀 | X22 | 储气库埋深过浅 | |
| M7 | 外防腐措施失效 | X23 | 土层开挖 | |
| M8 | 土壤中腐蚀储气库因素 | X24 | 跨沟外露 | |
| M9 | 防腐绝缘层失效 | X25 | 阀组处外露 | |
| M10 | 第三方破坏 | X26 | 温度 | |
| M11 | 初始缺陷 | X27 | 大气含水量 | |
| M12 | 储气库外露 | X28 | 大气中硫化物含量 | |
| M13 | 大气腐蚀因素 | X29 | 风向和风速 | |
| M14 | 开始缺陷 | X30 | 降尘 | |
| M15 | 内腐蚀失效 | X31 | 阴极保护失效 | |
| M16 | 特定介质腐蚀 | X32 | 电流干扰 | |
| M17 | 防腐措施失效 | X33 | 管龄过大 | |
| M18 | 酸性介质含量高 | X34 | 腐蚀检测结果差 | |
| M19 | 应力腐蚀 | X35 | 内防腐层质量差 | |
| M20 | 拉应力 | X36 | 储气库质量不达标 | |
| X1 | 储气库抗腐蚀性差 | X37 | 水击 | |
| X2 | 防腐绝缘涂层过薄 | X38 | 介质流速高 | |
| X3 | 防腐绝缘涂层破损 | X39 | 介质泥沙含量高 | |
| X4 | 防腐绝缘涂层老化剥离 | X40 | 介质中水含量高 | |
| X5 | 防腐绝缘涂层粘结力低 | X41 | H2S含量高 | |
| X6 | 防腐绝缘涂层下部积水 | X42 | CO2含量高 | |
| X7 | 防腐绝缘涂层脆性过大 | X43 | O2含量高 | |
| X8 | 储气库上方违章施工 | X44 | 衬里脱落 | |
| X9 | 储气库上层移动 | X45 | 内涂层变薄 | |
| X10 | 沿线管压严重 | X46 | 缓蚀剂失效 | |
| X11 | 设计不合理 | X47 | 清管效果差 | |
| X12 | 施工监管不严格 | X48 | 存在应力集中 | |
| X13 | 施工缺陷 | X49 | 存在残余应力 |
图6
储气库地面工艺管道外腐蚀失效故障树"
图7
储气库地面工艺管道内腐蚀失效故障树"
图8
储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀开裂失效故障树"
表4
储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效最小割集"
| 序号 | 最小割集 | 序号 | 最小割集 | 序号 | 最小割集 | 序号 | 最小割集 | 序号 | 最小割集 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | {X1,X2,X14} | 50 | {X2,X23,X27} | 99 | {X1,X5,X20} | 148 | {X7,X24,X29} | 197 | {X7,X21,X25} | ||||
| 2 | {X2,X21,X22} | 51 | {X2,X23,X28} | 100 | {X2,X24,X26} | 149 | {X7,X24,X30} | 198 | {X2,X22,X26} | ||||
| 3 | {X2,X31,X32} | 52 | {X2,X23,X29} | 101 | {X2,X24,X27} | 150 | {X11,X12,X13,X31,X32} | 199 | {X2,X22,X27} | ||||
| 4 | {X1,X8,X14} | 53 | {X2,X23,X30} | 102 | {X2,X24,X28} | 151 | {X1,X6,X15} | 200 | {X2,X22,X28} | ||||
| 5 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X14} | 54 | {X4,X23,X30} | 103 | {X2,X24,X29} | 152 | {X1,X6,X16} | 201 | {X2,X22,X29} | ||||
| 6 | {X1,X3,X14} | 55 | {X4,X24,X26} | 104 | {X2,X24,X30} | 153 | {X1,X6,X17} | 202 | {X2,X22,X30} | ||||
| 7 | {X1,X4,X14} | 56 | {X4,X24,X27} | 105 | {X2,X25,X26} | 154 | {X1,X6,X18} | 203 | {X3,X22,X26} | ||||
| 8 | {X1,X5,X14} | 57 | {X4,X24,X28} | 106 | {X2,X25,X27} | 155 | {X1,X6,X19} | 204 | {X5,X31,X32} | ||||
| 9 | {X1,X6,X14} | 58 | {X4,X24,X29} | 107 | {X2,X25,X28} | 156 | {X1,X6,X20} | 205 | {X6,X31,X32} | ||||
| 10 | {X1,X7,X14} | 59 | {X4,X24,X30} | 108 | {X2,X25,X29} | 157 | {X1,X7,X15} | 206 | {X7,X31,X32} | ||||
| 11 | {X1,X9,X14} | 60 | {X4,X25,X26} | 109 | {X2,X25,X30} | 158 | {X1,X7,X16} | 207 | {X9,X31,X32} | ||||
| 12 | {X1,X10,X14} | 61 | {X4,X25,X27} | 110 | {X3,X23,X26} | 159 | {X1,X7,X17} | 208 | {X10,X31,X32} | ||||
| 13 | {X1,X2,X15} | 62 | {X4,X25,X28} | 111 | {X3,X23,X27} | 160 | {X1,X7,X18} | 209 | {X5,X25,X26} | ||||
| 14 | {X1,X2,X16} | 63 | {X4,X25,X29} | 112 | {X3,X23,X28} | 161 | {X1,X7,X19} | 210 | {X5,X25,X27} | ||||
| 15 | {X1,X2,X17} | 64 | {X4,X25,X30} | 113 | {X3,X23,X29} | 162 | {X1,X7,X20} | 211 | {X5,X25,X28} | ||||
| 16 | {X1,X2,X18} | 65 | {X5,X23,X26} | 114 | {X3,X23,X30} | 163 | {X1,X9,X15} | 212 | {X5,X25,X29} | ||||
| 17 | {X1,X2,X19} | 66 | {X5,X23,X27} | 115 | {X3,X24,X26} | 164 | {X1,X9,X16} | 213 | {X5,X25,X30} | ||||
| 18 | {X1,X2,X20} | 67 | {X5,X23,X28} | 116 | {X3,X24,X27} | 165 | {X1,X9,X17} | 214 | {X6,X23,X26} | ||||
| 19 | {X1,X8,X15} | 68 | {X5,X23,X29} | 117 | {X3,X24,X28} | 166 | {X1,X9,X18} | 215 | {X6,X23,X27} | ||||
| 20 | {X1,X8,X16} | 69 | {X5,X23,X30} | 118 | {X3,X24,X29} | 167 | {X1,X9,X19} | 216 | {X6,X23,X28} | ||||
| 21 | {X1,X8,X17} | 70 | {X5,X24,X26} | 119 | {X3,X24,X30} | 168 | {X1,X9,X20} | 217 | {X6,X23,X29} | ||||
| 22 | {X1,X8,X18} | 71 | {X5,X24,X27} | 120 | {X3,X25,X26} | 169 | {X1,X10,X15} | 218 | {X7,X25,X26} | ||||
| 23 | {X1,X8,X19} | 72 | {X5,X24,X28} | 121 | {X3,X25,X27} | 170 | {X1,X10,X16} | 219 | {X7,X25,X27} | ||||
| 24 | {X1,X8,X20} | 73 | {X5,X24,X29} | 122 | {X3,X25,X28} | 171 | {X1,X10,X17} | 220 | {X7,X25,X28} | ||||
| 25 | {X3,X22,X27} | 74 | {X5,X24,X30} | 123 | {X3,X25,X29} | 172 | {X1,X10,X18} | 221 | {X7,X25,X29} | ||||
| 26 | {X3,X22,X28} | 75 | {X4,X31,X32} | 124 | {X3,X25,X30} | 173 | {X1,X10,X19} | 222 | {X7,X25,X30} | ||||
| 27 | {X3,X22,X29} | 76 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X15} | 125 | {X4,X23,X26} | 174 | {X1,X10,X20} | 223 | {X8,X31,X32} | ||||
| 28 | {X3,X22,X30} | 77 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X16} | 126 | {X4,X23,X27} | 175 | {X3,X21,X22} | 224 | {X3,X31,X32} | ||||
| 29 | {X4,X22,X26} | 78 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X17} | 127 | {X4,X23,X28} | 176 | {X4,X21,X22} | 225 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X44} | ||||
| 30 | {X4,X22,X27} | 79 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X18} | 128 | {X4,X23,X29} | 177 | {X5,X21,X22} | 226 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X44} | ||||
| 31 | {X4,X22,X28} | 80 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X19} | 129 | {X6,X23,X30} | 178 | {X6,X21,X22} | 227 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X45} | ||||
| 32 | {X4,X22,X29} | 81 | {X1,X11,X12,X13,X20} | 130 | {X6,X24,X26} | 179 | {X7,X21,X22} | 228 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X46} | ||||
| 33 | {X4,X22,X30} | 82 | {X1,X3,X15} | 131 | {X6,X24,X27} | 180 | {X2,X21,X23} | 229 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X47} | ||||
| 34 | {X5,X22,X26} | 83 | {X1,X3,X16} | 132 | {X6,X24,X28} | 181 | {X2,X21,X24} | 230 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X45} | ||||
| 35 | {X5,X22,X27} | 84 | {X1,X3,X17} | 133 | {X6,X24,X29} | 182 | {X2,X21,X25} | 231 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X46} | ||||
| 36 | {X5,X22,X28} | 85 | {X1,X3,X18} | 134 | {X6,X24,X30} | 183 | {X3,X21,X23} | 232 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X47} | ||||
| 37 | {X5,X22,X29} | 86 | {X1,X3,X19} | 135 | {X6,X25,X26} | 184 | {X3,X21,X24} | 233 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X45} | ||||
| 38 | {X5,X22,X30} | 87 | {X1,X3,X20} | 136 | {X6,X25,X27} | 185 | {X3,X21,X25} | 234 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X46} | ||||
| 39 | {X6,X22,X26} | 88 | {X1,X4,X15} | 137 | {X6,X25,X28} | 186 | {X4,X21,X23} | 235 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X47} | ||||
| 40 | {X6,X22,X27} | 89 | {X1,X4,X16} | 138 | {X6,X25,X29} | 187 | {X4,X21,X24} | 236 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X44,X48} | ||||
| 41 | {X6,X22,X28} | 90 | {X1,X4,X17} | 139 | {X6,X25,X30} | 188 | {X4,X21,X25} | 237 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X44,X48} | ||||
| 42 | {X6,X22,X29} | 91 | {X1,X4,X18} | 140 | {X7,X23,X26} | 189 | {X5,X21,X23} | 238 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X44,X49} | ||||
| 43 | {X6,X22,X30} | 92 | {X1,X4,X19} | 141 | {X7,X23,X27} | 190 | {X5,X21,X24} | 239 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X44,X50} | ||||
| 44 | {X7,X22,X26} | 93 | {X1,X4,X20} | 142 | {X7,X23,X28} | 191 | {X5,X21,X25} | 240 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X44,X49} | ||||
| 45 | {X7,X22,X27} | 94 | {X1,X5,X15} | 143 | {X7,X23,X29} | 192 | {X6,X21,X23} | 241 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X42,X44,X50} | ||||
| 46 | {X7,X22,X28} | 95 | {X1,X5,X16} | 144 | {X7,X23,X30} | 193 | {X6,X21,X24} | 242 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X44,X49} | ||||
| 47 | {X7,X22,X29} | 96 | {X1,X5,X17} | 145 | {X7,X24,X26} | 194 | {X6,X21,X25} | 243 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X43,X44,X50} | ||||
| 48 | {X7,X22,X30} | 97 | {X1,X5,X18} | 146 | {X7,X24,X27} | 195 | {X7,X21,X23} | 244 | {X11,X12,X26,X33,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X44} | ||||
| 49 | {X2,X23,X26} | 98 | {X1,X5,X19} | 147 | {X7,X24,X28} | 196 | {X7,X21,X24} | 245 | {X1,X11,X12,X26,X34,X35,X36,X40,X41,X44,X48} |
表5
基本事件结构重要度"
| 基本事件 | 结构重要度 | 基本事件 | 结构重要度 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| X1 | I[X1]=0.999 999 991 511 | X26 | I[X26]=0.999 028 455 528 | |
| X2 | I[X2]=0.999 899 547 574 | X27 | I[X27]=0.998 996 608 722 | |
| X3 | I[X3]=0.999 899 547 574 | X28 | I[X28]=0.998 996 608 722 | |
| X4 | I[X4]=0.999 899 547 574 | X29 | I[X29]=0.998 996 608 722 | |
| X5 | I[X5]=0.999 899 547 574 | X30 | I[X30]=0.998 996 608 722 | |
| X6 | I[X6]=0.999 899 547 574 | X31 | I[X31]=0.929 608 106 613 | |
| X7 | I[X7]=0.999 899 547 574 | X32 | I[X32]=0.929 608 106 613 | |
| X8 | I[X8]=0.899 887 084 961 | X33 | I[X33]=0.023 187 361 927 | |
| X9 | I[X9]=0.899 887 084 961 | X34 | I[X34]=0.031 739 169 359 | |
| X10 | I[X10]=0.899 887 084 961 | X35 | I[X35]=0.031 739 169 359 | |
| X11 | I[X11]=0.422 219 906 607 | X36 | I[X36]=0.031 739 169 359 | |
| X12 | I[X12]=0.422 219 906 607 | X37 | I[X37]=0.000 000 000 000 | |
| X13 | I[X13]=0.403 280 526 167 | X38 | I[X38]=0.000 000 000 000 | |
| X14 | I[X14]=0.929 608 106 613 | X39 | I[X39]=0.000 000 000 000 | |
| X15 | I[X15]=0.929 608 106 613 | X40 | I[X40]=0.031 739 169 359 | |
| X16 | I[X16]=0.929 608 106 613 | X41 | I[X41]=0.010 693 670 076 | |
| X17 | I[X17]=0.929 608 106 613 | X42 | I[X42]=0.010 693 670 076 | |
| X18 | I[X18]=0.929 608 106 613 | X43 | I[X43]=0.010 693 670 076 | |
| X19 | I[X19]=0.929 608 106 613 | X44 | I[X44]=0.014 551 549 120 | |
| X20 | I[X20]=0.929 608 106 613 | X45 | I[X45]=0.005 847 938 359 | |
| X21 | I[X21]=0.998 996 608 722 | X46 | I[X46]=0.005 847 938 359 | |
| X22 | I[X22]=0.999 968 216 225 | X47 | I[X47]=0.005 847 938 359 | |
| X23 | I[X23]=0.999 968 216 225 | X48 | I[X48]=0.002 926 827 408 | |
| X24 | I[X24]=0.999 968 216 225 | X49 | I[X49]=0.002 926 827 408 | |
| X25 | I[X25]=0.999 968 216 225 | X50 | I[X50]=0.002 926 827 408 |
表6
储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀失效因素"
| 一级因素 | 二级因素 | 三级因素 | 评分 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 储气库腐蚀失效 | 腐蚀 | 外部腐蚀 | 26 |
| 内部腐蚀 | 20 | ||
| 防腐措施失效 | 7 | ||
| 自然环境 | 土壤因素 | 4 | |
| 大气因素 | 4 | ||
| 储气库设备 | 储气库本身缺陷 | 13 | |
| 设计施工问题 | 17 | ||
| 第三方破坏 | 人为破坏 | 3 | |
| 地层运动 | 6 |
表7
判断矩阵"
| 判断矩阵A | 腐蚀a1 | 自然环境a2 | 储气库设备a3 | 第三方破坏a4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 腐蚀a1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 自然环境a2 | 1/6 | 1 | 1/5 | 2 |
| 储气库设备a3 | 1/3 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 第三方破坏a4 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 1/5 | 1 |
表8
储气库地面工艺管道腐蚀损伤评价"
| 级别 | 最大蚀坑深度 | 腐蚀状态 |
|---|---|---|
| 轻 | 小于1 mm | 1 |
| 中 | [l，2]mm | 2 |
| 重 | [l0%，50%]壁厚 | 3 |
| 严重 | （50%，80%]壁厚 | 4 |
| 穿孔 | 大于80%壁厚 | 5 |
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