基于数值模拟法与油藏开发经营一体化思想的页岩油藏经济决策研究

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2021.03.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

页岩油开发前期的投资大且采收率较低,经济损失风险较大。因此,需要结合不同开发方式对其进行经济决策研究。对此,基于数值模拟法与油藏开发经营一体化的思想,首先建立经济决策体系与油价指标预测,再通过多种数值模拟方案组合优选,完善了一套针对不同阶段、不同油价下的开发方式选择的新方法。以大港油田沧东凹陷孔二段页岩油为例,进行了不同整体开发方案指标预测,最后基于油藏开发经营一体化思想进行了不同国际油价下的开发方案优选。通过对比单一开采方案与组合式开采方案的累计净现值的变化,发现采收率较高的单一开采方式不一定为经济最优方案,最终得出了不同油价区间的最具经济效益的开发方案,形成了一套页岩油藏经济高效开发方案的优选方法。

关键词: 页岩油, 数值模拟, 开发经营, 国际油价, 经济决策

Abstract:

In the early stage of shale oil development, the investment is large and the recovery factor is low, bringing great risk of economic loss. Therefore, it is necessary to combine different development methods to study its economic decision. To this end, based on the idea of the integration of numerical simulation method and reservoir development and management, firstly, the economic decision-making system and oil price index prediction are established, and then a series of new methods for the selection of development mode at different stages and different oil prices are improved through the combination and optimization of various numerical simulation schemes. Taking the shale oil of Kong-2 Member in Cangdong Sag of Dagang Oilfield as an example, different overall development program indexes are predicted. Finally, based on the idea of reservoir development and management integration, the suitable development programs for different international oil prices are selected. By comparing the changes of the cumulative net present value of the single production plan and the combined production plan, it is found that the single production method with higher recovery factor is not necessarily the economic optimal plan. Finally, the most economical development plan with different oil price ranges is obtained, and a set of optimal method for the economic and efficient development plan of shale reservoir is formed.

Key words: shale oil, numerical simulation, development and management, international oil price, economic decision

中图分类号:

TE349

吴昊镪,彭小龙,朱苏阳等. 基于数值模拟法与油藏开发经营一体化思想的页岩油藏经济决策研究[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2021, 11(3): 404-413.

Haoqiang WU,Xiaolong PENG,Suyang ZHU, et al. Economic decision of shale reservoir based on numerical simulation and integration of reservoir development and management[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2021, 11(3): 404-413.

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油藏性质	取值	油藏性质	取值
原油相对密度（g/cm³）	0.870 6	原始地层压力（MPa）	42.73
原油平均黏度（mPa·s）	15.57	地层水水型	CaCl₂型
原油平均蜡含量（%）	28	地层水矿化度（mg/L）	11 983
原油平均胶含量（%）	26.5	原油饱和压力（MPa）	11.34
储层平均孔隙度（%）	3.9	溶解汽油比（m³/m³）	46
储层平均埋深（m）	4 100	储层平均渗透率（10^-3 μm ²）	0.8
岩石平均脆性指数	72.4	储层有效厚度（m）	90 ~ 110
油藏压力系数	0.97 ~ 1.10	油藏温度梯度（℃/100 m）	2.86 ~ 3.12
原油地质储量（10⁸m³）	0.728	原油储量丰度（10⁴t/km²）	559.17

方案模式	井数	井型	改造形式	开发单元	部署时间（a）	采油速度（%）	合理配产（m³/d）	标定采收率（%）
衰竭式+CO₂驱替	205	水平井+直井	体积压裂	E₁,E₃,E₅	10 ~ 20,5 ~ 15,1 ~ 10	1.2	25 ~ 30	15 ~ 20
衰竭式+CH₄驱替
衰竭式+N₂驱替
衰竭式+CO₂吞吐	185	水平井	体积压裂	E₁,E₃,E₅	10 ~ 20,5 ~ 15,1 ~ 10	1.2	25 ~ 30	15 ~ 20
衰竭式+ CO₂吞吐+ CO₂驱替	205	水平井+直井	体积压裂	E₁,E₃,E₅	10 ~ 20,5 ~ 15,1 ~ 10	1.2	25 ~ 30	15 ~ 20
衰竭式+ CO₂吞吐+ CH₄驱替	205	水平井+直井	体积压裂	E₁,E₃,E₅	10 ~ 20,5 ~ 15,1 ~ 10	1.2	25 ~ 30	15 ~ 20

类别	项目	金额
压裂投资	设备动迁费（元）	1 000
	现场配液费（元）	1 500
	材料费（元）	200
	运输费（万元/井）	50
	人工费（万元/井）	60
举升投资	井口装置费（万元/井）	80
	年防蜡防胶费用（万元/井）	100
	井下装置费（万元/井）	100
注气费用	注CO₂（元/t）	500
	注N₂（元/t）	1 200
	注烃类气（元/m³）	0.5
	注CO₂,CH₄压缩机（万元/台）	30
	注N₂压缩机（万元/台）	20
产液处理	采油气费用（元/m³）	440
产液处理	污水处理（元/m³）	50