基于改进的层次分析法的页岩气开发选区评价方法

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2021.02.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选区评价研究是页岩气开发过程中的重要环节,评价方法的有效性有助于页岩气的高效开发。以涪陵页岩气田勘探开发成熟区块、未成熟区块2种类型共9个候选区块为研究对象,系统分析了不同地质与工程参数对选区评价的影响,并优选了区块的评价指标。其中,含气性、可压性和经济性是页岩气开发选区评价的3个重要方面。然后,利用层次分析法和均方差法确定指标的组合权重,提高了权重系数的精确度,建立了页岩气开发选区评价方法。研究表明在页岩气开发选区过程中,主要的评价指标为气测全烃值、断裂发育程度、地层压力系数、地形特征、目的层裂缝发育程度和孔隙度。根据在涪陵页岩气田的开发实践,评价与实际吻合度较高,表明基于改进的层次分析法的页岩气开发选区评价方法是可行的。

关键词: 页岩气, 开发选区, 层次分析法, 均方差法, 页岩气开发选区系数

Abstract:

The evaluation of shale gas development area selection is an important part of shale gas development, and the effectiveness of evaluation methods is conducive to the efficient development of shale gas. Based on 9 candidate blocks of exploration and development mature and immature blocks in Fuling Shale Gas Field, the influence of different geological and engineering parameters on the evaluation of selected areas has been systematically analyzed, and the evaluation index of the blocks have been selected. Among these index, gas content, compressibility and economy are three important aspects of shale gas development area selection evaluation. Thereafter, the analytic hierarchy process and the mean square error method are used to determine the combined weight of the index, which improve the accuracy of the weight coefficients and establish an evaluation method for shale gas development area selection. The research result shows that in the process of selecting shale gas development areas, the main evaluation index are total hydrocarbon value measured by gas logging, fault development degree, formation pressure coefficient, topographic features, fracture development degree of target layer and porosity. According to the development practice in the Fuling Shale Gas Field, the evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual situation, indicating that the evaluation method for shale gas development area selection based on the improved analytic hierarchy process is feasible.

Key words: shale gas, development area selection, analytic hierarchy process, mean square deviation method, shale gas development area selection coefficient

中图分类号:

TE121

陆亚秋,王进,曹梦茜. 基于改进的层次分析法的页岩气开发选区评价方法[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2021, 11(2): 204-211.

LU Yaqiu,WANG Jin,CAO Mengxi. Evaluation method of shale gas development area selection based on improved analytic hierarchy process[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2021, 11(2): 204-211.

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指标	有机碳含量	孔隙度	气测全烃值	地层压力系数	权重系数
有机碳含量	1	1	0.333 3	0.333 3	0.130 2
孔隙度	1	1	0.333 3	1.000 0	0.161 4
气测全烃值	3	3	1.000 0	3.000 0	0.484 4
地层压力系数	3	1	0.333 3	1.000 0	0.224 0
一致性检验	CR=0.005 8,λ_max=4.156 6

指标		权重系数
含气性	有机碳含量	0.070
	孔隙度	0.087
	气测全烃值	0.261
	地层压力系数	0.121
可压性	断裂发育程度	0.148
	埋深3 500 m以浅面积比例	0.027
	构造形态	0.045
	目的层裂缝发育程度	0.077
经济性	水文条件	0.063
	天然气管网条件	0.028
	地形特征	0.073

区块	有机碳含量（%）	孔隙度（%）	气测全烃值（%）	地层压力系数	断裂发育程度	埋深3 500 m 以浅面积比例（%）	构造形态	目的层裂缝发育程度	水文条件	天然气管网条件	地形特征
区块一	3.80	4.50	15	1.3	0.4	85.0	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4
区块二	4.00	5.00	20	1.6	0.8	95.0	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4
区块三	3.30	4.00	10	1.2	0.2	80.0	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4
区块四	3.20	3.00	6	1.2	0.2	70.0	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.3
区块五	3.32	4.57	15	1.6	0.8	50.2	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4
区块六	3.55	3.21	12	1.5	0.8	64.0	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4
区块七	3.23	3.32	6	1.2	0.4	79.0	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3
区块八	3.66	2.96	4	1.1	0.2	59.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
区块九	2.88	2.85	2	1.0	0.4	30.0	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3

指标	权重系数（均方差法）
有机碳含量	0.072
孔隙度	0.088
气测全烃值	0.077
地层压力系数	0.084
断裂发育程度	0.102
埋深3 500 m以浅面积比例	0.071
构造形态	0.097
目的层裂缝发育程度	0.102
水文条件	0.084
天然气管网条件	0.100
地形特征	0.122

指标	权重系数（综合确定）
有机碳含量	0.057
孔隙度	0.086
气测全烃值	0.225
地层压力系数	0.114
断裂发育程度	0.170
埋深3 500 m以浅面积比例	0.021
构造形态	0.049
目的层裂缝发育程度	0.089
水文条件	0.060
天然气管网条件	0.031
地形特征	0.099