未确知测度模型在南堡H断块油层潜力评价中的应用

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2023.02.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

如何准确评价当前油层潜力直接影响着开发中后期复杂断块注水油藏剩余油的挖潜工作。通过静态油藏地质特征与动态开发效果综合分析，确定了复杂断块油藏剩余油分布的主控因素，并利用基于未确知数学理论和属性测度理论的层次分析+未确知测度评价方法进行油层潜力评价。通过构建评价指标体系，建立精确的未确知测度函数，利用置信度识别准则判定评价空间，最终得到油层潜力评价结果。研究结果表明：利用层次分析+未确知测度综合评价油层潜力，建立了7个参数组成的评价体系并构建未确知测度函数，根据油藏潜力大小可将油层分为4类，其中，Ⅰ、Ⅱ类油层潜力较好，评价结果与数模结果相似，并通过现场实施验证评价结果的可靠性。

关键词: 动静结合, 剩余油, 层次分析法, 未确知测度, 油层潜力评价

Abstract:

How to accurately evaluate the current reservoir potential directly affects the potential tapping of remaining oil by water injection in complex fault block reservoirs during the middle and late stages of development. By the comprehensive analysis of static reservoir geological characteristics and dynamic development effects, the main control factors of residual oil distribution in complex fault block reservoirs are determined, and the reservoir potential is evaluated by the analytic hierarchy process combined with unascertained measure evaluation method based on unascertained mathematical theory and attribute measurement theory. An accurate unascertained measure function is established by building an evaluation index system, and by the confidence degree identification criteria to determine the evaluation space, the evaluation result of reservoir potential is finally obtained. The research results show that the reservoir potential is comprehensively evaluated by using the analytic hierarchy process and unascertained measurement, the evaluation system consisting of seven parameters is established and the unascertained measurement function is constructed. According to the reservoir potential, the reservoirs can be divided into four categories, of which category Ⅰ and category Ⅱ have good potential. The evaluation results are similar to the numerical simulation results, and the reliability of the evaluation results is verified by the on-site implementation.

Key words: static and dynamic combination analysis, remaining oil, analytic hierarchy process, uncertainty measure, reservoir potential evaluation

中图分类号:

TE357

曲丽丽,李明林,伍志敏等. 未确知测度模型在南堡H断块油层潜力评价中的应用[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2023, 13(2): 190-199.

Lili QU,Minglin LI,Zhimin WU, et al. Application of unascertained measure model in reservoir potential evaluation of Nanpu H Fault Block[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2023, 13(2): 190-199.

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注采相带	统计井数（口）	见效井数（口）	见效比例（%）	平均井距（m）	见效时间（d）	见水时间（d）	压力传导速度（m/d）
河道注水河道见效（顺物源）	10	8	80.0	266	162	566	1.64
河道注水河道见效（垂直物源）	10	6	60.0	247	201	697	1.23
河道注水河道见效（与物源方向相反）	10	7	70.0	268	180	568	1.49
河道注水侧缘见效	8	2	25.0	257	287	837	0.90
侧缘注水河道见效	8	4	50.0	243	307	987	0.79
侧缘注水侧缘见效	6	2	33.3	244	388	未见水	0.63

影响因素			评价等级
影响因素			C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄
地质因素	构造特征	微构造类型	正向微构造	斜面高部位	斜面低部位	负向微构造
	沉积特征	沉积微相	河口坝	水下分流河道	河道侧缘	席状砂
	物性特征	渗透率（10^-3 μm²）	>200	100~200	100~50	<50
	物质基础	油层有效油厚（m）	>8	6~8	4~6	<4
开发因素	开采情况	综合含水（%）	<20	20~60	60~80	>80
	开采情况	采出程度（%）	<10	10~15	15~20	>20
	能量补给	压力系数	>0.8	0.6~0.8	0.4~0.6	<0.4

一级参数	地质因素	开发因素
地质因素	1	3/2
开发因素	2/3	1

二级参数	微构造	沉积微相	渗透率	有效厚度
微构造	1	1	1/2	1/4
沉积微相	1	1	1/2	1/4
渗透率	2	2	1	1/3
有效厚度	4	4	3	1

二级参数	采出程度	含水	压力系数
采出程度	1	1	1/2
含水	1	1	1/2
压力系数	2	2	1