PCA-OPLS联合法快速评价页岩气井储量动用程度

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2023.04.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

川南地区已经钻探完成了上千口页岩气井，地质评价、钻探和生产过程中产生了大量高维度的数据，利用生产获得的各种数据预测页岩气储量动用程度，是指导页岩气勘探开发的一项重要工作。耦合主成分分析法（PCA）与正交偏最小二乘法（OPLS）分析方法是形成一种快速、准确的储量动用程度预测新方法。通过结合主成分分析和正交偏最小二乘法，建立了PCA-OPLS联合法，借助昭通页岩气井样本，检验了新方法在储量动用程度评价中的应用效果。实例应用表明，页岩气井储量动用预测准确率满足要求，可以用于预测新钻井的储量动用程度，从而证明PCA-OPLS联合法能达到快速、准确预测储量动用程度的目的。该方法操作简单，准确率高，在页岩气储量动用评价中具有较好的应用前景。

关键词: 储量动用程度预测, PCA-OPLS法, 多元非线性回归, 精度检验, 页岩气

Abstract:

In southern Sichuan, thousands of shale gas wells have been drilled, generating a vast amount of high-dimensional data during geological evaluation, drilling, and production processes. Predicting reserve recovery ratios through data exploration and analysis is essential for guiding the exploration and development of shale gas resources. To achieve this goal, a novel approach is introduced, which couples principal component analysis（PCA） and orthogonal partial least square（OPLS） analysis, enabling rapid and accurate prediction of reserve production degree. The new method is put to the test using Zhaotong shale gas well samples to evaluate its effectiveness in predicting reserve recovery ratios. The results show that the average accuracy of reserve recovery ratio prediction using PCA-OPLS method surpasses the anticipated result, that this algorithm can swiftly and precisely predict recovery ratios. With its advantages of simplicity, high accuracy, and promising application prospects, this method holds great potential for efficiently evaluating the production and recovery ratios of shale gas reserves.

Key words: reserve recovery ratio prediction, PCA-OPLS method, multiple nonlinear regression, accuracy test, shale gas

中图分类号:

TE122

刘洪林,周尚文,李晓波. PCA-OPLS联合法快速评价页岩气井储量动用程度[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2023, 13(4): 474-483.

LIU Honglin,ZHOU Shangwen,LI Xiaobo. Application of PCA plus OPLS method in rapid reserve production rate prediction of shale gas wells[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2023, 13(4): 474-483.

图/表 9

图1

表1

页岩气井实验样本的主要参数"

井号	自变量X																			因变量Y
井号	脆性矿物/ %	储层厚度/ m	总有机碳/ %	孔隙度/ %	总含气量/ （m³·t^-1）	含气饱和度/ %	吸附含气量/ （m³·t^-1）	资源丰度/ （10⁸m³·km^-2）	单井储量/ 10⁸m³	水平段长/ m	压裂液量/ m³	加砂量/ t	最小施工排量/ （m³·min^-1）	最大施工排量/ （m³·min^-1）	井口压力/MPa	IP30/ 10⁴ m³	单井可采储量/ 10⁸m³	测试日产量/ 10⁴m³	生产天数/ d	储量动用程度/ %
YS108H1-2	62	72	2.3	6.3	5.5	54.3	3.1	9.0	4.5	1 408	34 569	1 381	3.5	10.7	31.7	13.31	0.67	18.60	1 976	14.9
YS108H1-4	63	71	2.2	5.9	5.3	52.1	2.5	9.2	4.5	1 404	36 982	1 315	8.0	11.3	29.7	10.99	1.54	24.23	2 147	34.2
YS108H1-8	58	70	2.5	6.1	5.6	51.4	3.1	8.8	4.6	1 478	36 563	1 288	9.3	10.8	15.8	8.92	1.08	26.08	2 147	23.5
YS108H2-2	58	69	2.4	6.3	5.6	56.0	2.5	8.9	4.5	1 433	38 322	2 096	12.2	14.2	23.6	9.09	0.81	14.89	1 695	18.0
YS108H2-3	58	70	2.7	6.0	5.5	52.5	3.5	8.8	6.0	1 900	18 759	1 055	12.8	13.5	27.3	8.12	0.55	35.14	1 290	9.2
YS108H2-4	56	70	2.4	5.9	5.8	53.4	2.9	8.8	5.1	1 630	41 819	2 306	13.3	14.0	16.5	15.61	1.26	29.03	1 693	24.7
YS108H2-5	55	70	2.8	5.9	5.5	52.0	3.4	8.9	3.6	1 154	29 240	1 443	9.8	14.2	21.6	8.04	0.89	24.75	1 701	24.7
YS108H3-2	56	72	2.6	5.9	5.5	50.5	3.3	9.0	4.8	1 491	37 770	1 576	10.2	12.7	20.9	15.85	1.10	17.50	2 280	22.9
YS108H6-5	58	62	2.8	5.2	4.5	48.5	3.2	6.7	3.7	1 515	34 376	987	6.0	11.0	15.7	8.28	0.87	15.79	2 257	23.5
YS108H8-5	54	62	2.7	4.6	5.0	46.0	3.2	6.8	4.0	1 665	32 217	1 893	10.0	13.2	11.6	2.12	0.51	10.87	1 871	12.8
YS108H9-2	56	60	2.6	4.6	4.7	44.3	3.0	6.8	3.8	1 570	36 756	1 630	10.3	12.1	11.1	4.13	0.47	12.23	1 533	12.4
YS108H9-3	56	61	2.7	4.5	4.9	45.5	2.6	6.7	4.0	1 650	44 452	2 113	10.0	12.3	12.9	4.08	0.83	11.25	1 540	20.8
YS108H9-5	56	61	2.7	4.7	4.9	44.7	3.1	6.7	3.3	1 350	31 031	1 442	10.2	12.1	13.7	3.72	0.33	13.19	1 543	10.0
YS108H11-1	49	69	2.3	4.9	4.9	52.0	3.2	8.0	3.9	1 383	26 093	1 209	9.3	11.4	13.0	9.16	1.09	14.00	2 183	27.9
YS108H13-2	54	71	2.6	5.7	4.9	53.8	2.8	8.4	3.3	1 100	37 900	2 250	11.4	13.0	21.0	9.74	0.82	17.70	1 065	24.8
YS108H13-3	54	71	2.7	5.7	5.2	53.8	2.5	8.3	3.4	1 140	40 497	2 387	11.1	12.7	22.0	11.68	1.00	16.64	1 035	29.4
YS108H13-4	55	53	2.5	5.1	4.2	54.4	2.8	5.4	2.5	1 330	46 500	2 750	11.3	12.2	19.1	8.02	0.99	32.50	1 035	39.6
YS108H19-2	55	54	3.0	5.3	4.6	55.3	2.5	5.4	3.0	1 560	42 618	1 879	11.2	13.3	29.2	6.27	0.36	22.90	1 432	12.0
YS108H19-4	68	53	2.7	5.4	4.2	54.5	3.3	5.4	2.5	1 340	37 693	1 725	12.1	14.1	29.5	5.97	0.38	27.40	1 426	15.2
YS108H19-6	67	53	2.8	5.1	4.4	56.4	2.2	5.4	1.8	970	25 031	1 079	11.8	13.1	14.4	6.95	0.31	37.30	1 426	17.2

表1

表2

页岩气井实验样本的总方差解释"

成分	初始特征值 %			提取载荷平方和 %
成分	总计	方差百分比	累积	总计	方差百分比	累积
1	6.00	30.03	30.03	6.00	30.03	30.03
2	4.02	20.10	50.16	4.02	20.10	50.13
3	2.81	14.00	64.25	2.81	14.00	64.13
4	2.07	10.30	74.64	2.07	10.30	74.43
5	1.43	7.15	81.79	1.43	7.15	81.58
6	0.93	4.67	86.47
7	0.68	3.42	89.89
$?$	$?$	$?$	$?$
15	0.02	0.09	99.93

表2

表3

表4

表5

图2

表6

图3

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标准化的X变量	主成分
标准化的X变量	PCA1	PCA 2	PCA 3	PCA 4	PCA 5
Z-score(优质储层厚度)	0.837	0.080	-0.101	0.308	-0.220
Z-score(资源丰度)	0.795	0.382	0.019	0.370	-0.108
Z-score(井口压力)	0.738	0.075	-0.155	-0.108	0.049
Z-score(总有机碳)	-0.663	-0.234	-0.039	-0.144	0.242
Z-score(累计产气)	0.149	0.902	-0.016	-0.119	-0.018
Z-score(IP30)	0.141	0.901	-0.012	-0.111	-0.012
Z-score(孔隙度)	0.463	0.752	0.152	-0.009	0.133
Z-score(含气量)	0.459	0.636	0.188	0.400	0.103
Z-score(主压裂用液量)	-0.012	0.022	0.966	0.074	-0.008
Z-score(改造段数)	-0.026	0.000	0.962	0.131	-0.057
Z-score(加砂量)	-0.107	0.126	0.916	0.012	0.257
Z-score(吸附气含量)	-0.097	0.460	-0.134	0.722	-0.062
Z-score(含气饱和度)	-0.168	0.291	0.117	-0.686	0.311
Z-score(水平段长)	0.141	-0.206	0.245	0.680	0.150
Z-score(单井储量)	0.637	0.134	0.121	0.670	0.016
Z-score(脆性矿物含量)	-0.320	0.025	-0.321	-0.566	-0.062
Z-score(最大排量)	-0.156	0.145	0.030	0.020	0.889
Z-score(最小排量)	0.042	-0.184	-0.015	-0.024	0.841
Z-score(井深)	-0.133	0.514	0.128	0.124	0.577

标准化的X变量	成分得分系数
标准化的X变量	资源品质指标	产量指标	改造程度指标	储层质量指标	压裂施工指标
Z-score(优质储层厚度)	0.837	0.080	-0.101	0.308	-0.220
Z-score(资源丰度)	0.795	0.382	0.019	0.370	-0.108
Z-score(井口压力)	0.738	0.075	-0.155	-0.108	0.049
Z-score(总有机碳)	-0.663	-0.234	-0.039	-0.144	0.242
Z-score(累计产气)	0.149	0.902	-0.016	-0.119	-0.018
Z-score(IP30)	0.149	0.902	-0.016	-0.119	-0.018
Z-score(孔隙度)	0.463	0.752	0.152	-0.009	0.133
Z-score(含气量)	0.459	0.636	0.188	0.400	0.103
Z-score(主压裂用液量)	-0.012	0.022	0.966	0.074	-0.008
Z-score(改造段数)	-0.026	0.000	0.962	0.131	-0.057
Z-score(加砂量)	-0.107	0.126	0.916	0.012	0.257
Z-score(吸附气含量)	-0.097	0.460	-0.134	0.722	-0.062
Z-score(含气饱和度)	-0.168	0.291	0.117	-0.686	0.311
Z-score(水平段长)	0.141	-0.206	0.245	0.680	0.150
Z-score(单井储量)	0.637	0.134	0.121	0.670	0.016
Z-score(脆性矿物含量)	-0.320	0.025	-0.321	-0.566	-0.062
Z-score(最大排量)	-0.156	0.145	0.030	0.020	0.889
Z-score(最小排量)	0.042	-0.184	-0.015	-0.024	0.841
Z-score(井深)	-0.133	0.514	0.128	0.124	0.577

井号	自变量X'					因变量Y
井号	资源品质指标	产量指标	改造程度指标	储层质量指标	压裂施工指标	储量动用程度/%
YS108H1-2	38 745.19	242 578.90	29 169.37	-26 625.29	38 684.12	14.9
YS108H1-4	31 815.66	200 651.80	32 300.94	-21 119.02	31 753.22	34.2
YS108H1-8	25 669.95	163 450.99	32 491.84	-16 325.98	25 599.78	23.5
YS108H2-2	25 977.16	166 748.52	33 369.81	-16 560.60	25 913.70	18.0
YS108H2-3	23 559.73	148 623.42	15 293.25	-15 499.28	23 498.18	9.2
YS108H2-4	45 494.63	283 912.81	34 990.12	-31 269.70	45 425.26	24.7
YS108H2-5	23 072.32	147 564.03	25 219.65	-15 067.94	23 006.75	24.7
YS108H3-2	46 243.02	288 485.75	31 464.01	-32 137.25	46 174.13	22.9
YS108H6-5	23 799.00	151 848.49	30 773.49	-14 974.36	23 739.38	23.5
YS108H8-5	5 442.66	40 631.93	29 577.75	-909.97	5 380.57	12.8
YS108H9-2	11 374.61	76 894.37	33 755.54	-5 246.87	11 313.41	12.4
YS108H9-3	11 123.02	76 088.64	41 027.27	-4 541.59	11 062.52	20.8
YS108H9-5	10 214.87	69 443.30	28 294.55	-4 880.08	10 155.26	10.0
YS108H11-1	26 495.12	167 691.19	22 035.12	-17 699.01	26 425.29	27.9
YS108H13-2	27 887.31	178 252.07	32 591.70	-18 339.07	27 820.61	24.8
YS108H13-3	33 636.45	213 393.80	34 506.93	-22 589.42	33 570.31	29.4
YS108H13-4	22 637.13	147 494.82	41 224.96	-13 616.19	22 590.07	39.6
YS108H19-2	17 589.50	115 829.81	38 711.51	-9 716.63	17 549.24	12.0
YS108H19-4	16 724.85	110 252.57	33 984.25	-9 539.17	16 685.64	15.2
YS108H19-6	19 808.92	127936.21	21 583.31	-12 956.80	19 758.71	17.2