咸水层中CO2溶解性能预测方法优选

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2024.01.005

油气藏评价与开发 ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (1): 35-41.doi: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2024.01.005

咸水层中CO₂溶解性能预测方法优选

董利飞^1,²(),董文卓¹,张旗¹,钟品志¹,王苗¹,余波¹,韦海宇¹,杨超²()

1.重庆三峡学院，重庆 404120
2.三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室（三峡大学），湖北宜昌 443002

收稿日期:2023-04-03 出版日期:2024-02-26 发布日期:2024-03-05
通讯作者: 杨超（1986—），男，博士，副教授，从事岩石（体）流变力学、地下洞室开挖与支护等工作。地址：湖北省宜昌市大学路8号，邮政编码：443002。E-mail：yangchao0615@ctgu.edu.cn
作者简介:董利飞（1988—），男，博士，副教授，从事非常规油气开发与安全、岩石物理与渗流力学等工作。地址：重庆市万州区重庆三峡学院，邮政编码：404120。E-mail：lfdong2012@sina.com
基金资助:
重庆市基础研究与前沿探索(面上项目)“基于微观接触力学的页岩气藏远场分支裂缝自支撑机理及导流能力评价”(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1135);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(重点项目)“页岩气藏次级裂缝自支撑作用及其影响因素研究”(KJZD-K202201204);三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室（三峡大学）开放基金“基于压力补偿的库区欠压水层CO2埋存潜力研究”(2022KDZ04);重庆三峡学院研究生科研创新项目“复合地基承载力分析及沉降预测”(YJSKY22061)

Optimal prediction method for CO₂ solubility in saline aquifers

DONG Lifei^1,²(),DONG Wenzhuo¹,ZHANG Qi¹,ZHONG Pinzhi¹,WANG Miao¹,YU Bo¹,WEI Haiyu¹,YANG Chao²()

1. Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing 404120, China
2. Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area（China Three Gorges University）, Ministry of Education, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China

Received:2023-04-03 Online:2024-02-26 Published:2024-03-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

CO₂在咸水层中的溶解性能是估算CO₂溶解埋存量的重要参数。为了快速经济地评价分析CO₂在咸水层中溶解性能，基于目前不同温度、压强、矿化度下CO₂在水中溶解性能数据，开展灰色GM（1，1）模型预测，分析预测相对误差，应用马尔科夫理论，划分状态区间并构造状态转移概率矩阵，对预测结果进行修正，提出基于灰色马尔科夫理论的CO₂在咸水层中溶解性能预测模型。结果表明：灰色马尔科夫模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为1.52%、17.73%、0.21%、3.97%，灰色GM（1，1）模型预测结果的平均相对误差分别为2.37%、19.29%、3.62%、3.94%，灰色马尔科夫预测值与相应实测数据更吻合，模型预测性能较好，可为CO₂在地下咸水中的溶解度预测提供1种新方法。

关键词: CO₂溶解性能, 咸水层, 马尔科夫理论, 灰色GM（1, 1）模型, 预测方法

Abstract:

CO₂ solubility in saline aquifer is an important parameter for estimating the volume of CO₂ that can be dissolved and stored underground. To rapidly and economically evaluate and analyze the solubility of CO₂ in saline aquifers, a study was conducted using grey GM（1,1） modeling based on existing data of CO₂ solubility in water under various temperatures, pressures, and salinities. By using Markov theory, the state interval was divided, the state transition probability matrix was constructed, and the prediction results were revised. A prediction model of CO₂ solubility in saline aquifer based on grey Markov theory was proposed. The results showed that the average relative errors between the predicted values of the grey Markov theory and the measured values were 1.52%、17.73%、0.21% and 3.97%, respectively. The average relative errors between the prediction results of the gray GM（1,1） model were 2.37%、19.29%、3.62% and 3.94%, respectively. The predicted values of the grey Markov model were more consistent with the measured data, and the prediction performance of the model was better, so as to provide a new method for predicting the solubility of CO₂ in underground salt water.

Key words: CO₂ solubility, saline aquifers, dissolution, Markov theory, grey GM（1,1） model, forecast method

中图分类号:

TE319

董利飞, 董文卓, 张旗, 钟品志, 王苗, 余波, 韦海宇, 杨超. 咸水层中CO₂溶解性能预测方法优选[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2024, 14(1): 35-41.

DONG Lifei, DONG Wenzhuo, ZHANG Qi, ZHONG Pinzhi, WANG Miao, YU Bo, WEI Haiyu, YANG Chao. Optimal prediction method for CO₂ solubility in saline aquifers[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2024, 14(1): 35-41.

图/表 6

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状态描述	区间	压强/MPa	个数
高估	[-1.06%，-0.06%）	20、30、80	3
较为准确	[-0.06%，0.94%）	10、40、60、70	4
低估	[0.94%，1.94%]	50	1

压强/MPa	实测值/（mol/kg）	灰色GM（1，1）模型		灰色马尔科夫模型
压强/MPa	实测值/（mol/kg）	预测值/（mol/kg）	相对误差/ %	预测值/ （mol/kg）	相对误差/ %
90	2.058 2	2.085 0	1.30	2.073 4	0.74
100	2.129 6	2.202 9	3.44	2.191 9	2.29
平均相对误差			2.37		1.52

温度/ K	实测值/ （mol/kg）	灰色GM（1，1）模型		灰色马尔科夫模型
温度/ K	实测值/ （mol/kg）	预测值/ （mol/kg）	相对误差/ %	预测值/（mol/kg）	相对误差/ %
453.15	3.322 3	2.833 6	14.71	2.890 7	12.99
473.15	4.033 9	3.070 8	23.88	3.127 4	22.47
平均相对误差			19.29		17.73

矿化度/ （mol/kg）	溶解度/（mol/kg）
	p=13 MPa	p=15 MPa	p=17 MPa	p=20 MPa	p=23 MPa	p=26 MPa
	T=303.15 K	T=313.15 K	T=323.15 K	T=333.15 K	T=343.15 K	T=353.15 K
0	1.394	1.321	1.273	1.243	1.225	1.230
1	1.119	1.050	1.013	0.998	1.001	1.003
2	0.917	0.868	0.843	0.836	0.837	0.845
3	0.784	0.745	0.723	0.717	0.724	0.727

矿化度/ （mol/kg）	压强/ MPa	温度/ K	灰色GM（1，1）模型相对误差/%	灰色马尔科夫模型相对误差/%
0	23	343.15	1.82	1.47
0	26	353.15	5.16	5.53
1	23	343.15	3.18	3.70
1	26	353.15	5.81	5.58
2	23	343.15	2.06	1.79
2	26	353.15	4.81	4.62
3	23	343.15	3.22	3.73
3	26	353.15	5.46	5.36
平均相对误差			3.94	3.97

咸水层中CO₂溶解性能预测方法优选

Optimal prediction method for CO₂ solubility in saline aquifers

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