Abstract:

There are several methods of the production decline analysis during the shale gas reservoir development, such as the Arps model, the SEPD model, the Duong model and their composition models. Among them, the Arps model is the main method. There are two main choices of the appropriate decline methods. One is to transform the data into the linear relationship and the method with high correlation coefficient can be deemed as the better model. The other is to use the non-linear regression by the combination of the above models and choose the analysis method with high correlation coefficient. Then we proposed a new method to choose the production decline analysis model, and obtained the relation degree by comparing the linear combination of the different decline analysis models with the practical production data, furthermore, according to the degree of correlation in order, selected the production decline analysis method. This method is validated by the high fitting precision between the calculated results and the production data, which provides a reliable and reasonable way to choose the production decline models.

Key words: production decline, Arps model, SEPD model, Duong model, composition model