东海西湖凹陷X区块CO2地质封存诱发地震危险性探讨

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2025192

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of the “dual carbon” goals, offshore CO₂ geological storage offers significant advantages over onshore storage and represents a key development direction for future carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies. However, deep subsurface industrial activities such as CO₂ geological storage carry the risk of inducing earthquakes. Although the East China Sea Shelf Basin is a suitable area for offshore CO₂ storage in China, there is currently a lack of studies on the risk of induced earthquakes. An induced earthquake risk assessment method based on the Dieterich’s rate-and-state friction law was employed. Starting from fault stability analysis, the relative seismic activity rate on fault planes was correlated with Coulomb failure stress change. Both deterministic and probabilistic assessment approaches were used to investigate the induced earthquake risk associated with CO₂ injection in X block of the Xihu Sag, East China Sea. The results showed that: (1) The target reservoir in the middle Yuquan Formation within X block exhibited an anticline structure. The twelve faults divided the storage trap into northern and southern sections. The in-situ stress regime was potential normal faulting, and all faults were initially stable. (2) When CO₂ storage was conducted at a rate of 60×10⁴ t/a over 10 years into the southern trap, the diffusion of pore fluid pressure had a minor impact on surrounding faults, with a relatively low risk of inducing high-magnitude earthquakes. The estimated maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes within the block was 1.8. (3) Increasing the CO₂ injection rate would elevate the risk of induced earthquakes. While zonal injection could mitigate this risk, it may not be economically viable due to increased costs. The evaluation methods and findings presented in this study can serve as an assessment approach for induced earthquake risk in CO₂ geological storage, providing theoretical support for the safety of CCUS projects.

Key words: East China Sea Shelf Basin, Xihu Sag, CO₂ geological storage, fluid injection-induced earthquake, fault stability

CLC Number:

TE58

ZHAO Yong,FENG Qin,SUN Xin, et al. Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO₂ geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2026, 16(1): 23-33.

Figures/Tables 12

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名称	分段编号	走向/（°）	倾角/（°）	长度/m
F1	F1-1	106	81	1 818.2
	F1-2	102	81	807.0
	F1-3	104	81	516.4
	F1-4	98	81	543.2
	F1-5	103	81	349.3
	F1-6	104	81	757.1
F2	F2-1	118	74	600.1
	F2-2	118	74	667.9
	F2-3	104	74	795.7
F3	F3-1	84	81	449.3
	F3-2	89	81	469.8
	F3-3	101	81	818.7
	F3-4	114	81	488.6
	F3-5	118	81	796.7
F4	F4-1	40	78	608.0
	F4-2	52	78	577.8
	F4-3	65	78	474.8
	F4-4	76	78	538.4
	F4-5	88	78	545.7
	F4-6	99	78	553.0
	F4-7	104	78	766.3
	F4-8	105	78	854.6
	F4-9	93	78	826.6
F5	F5-1	134	85	412.9
	F5-2	111	85	503.8
	F5-3	111	85	834.6
F9	F9-1	96	82	1 074.2
F9	F9-2	95	82	1 095.4
F10	F10-1	111	83	616.4
F10	F10-2	99	83	621.5
F11	F11-1	92	84	674.6
	F11-2	100	84	500.8
	F11-3	106	84	834.7
F13	F13-1	40	85	774.8
	F13-2	46	85	872.8
	F13-3	41	85	534.3
F23	F23-1	46	71	713.3
	F23-2	48	71	552.9
	F23-3	54	71	679.5
	F23-4	61	71	803.9
	F23-5	58	71	1 022.1
F29	F29-1	40	67	807.0
	F29-2	45	67	707.8
	F29-3	51	67	872.8
	F29-4	52	67	573.2
	F29-5	60	67	733.3
F30	F30-1	51	68	1 007.7
	F30-2	45	68	756.1
	F30-3	46	68	632.8
	F30-4	57	68	624.5

Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO₂ geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea

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Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO2 geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea

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Investigation on risk of induced earthquakes for CO₂ geological storage in X block, Xihu Sag, East China Sea